One: Fantasy Scoring is Down, No Sign it’s Going to Improve
If you have felt like points aren’t as dynamic and high flying in your fantasy matchups this year, that’s because they aren’t. According to Matt DiSorbo, Fantasy Scoring is down 22% this year from last year, and is at a thirteen year low through week 6. One of the contributing factors is the fact that NFL scoring is down in general, averaging 21.6 points per game. That’s down from 23.0 in 2021, and a full 3 points down from 2020, which was 24.8. Much of this is linked, I believe, to poor offensive line play and injuries, as well as a general increase in defensive capability throughout the NFL.
What does this mean for us? First of all, if you are putting up lower numbers than you are used to it’s not necessarily time to freak out. If you have taken a couple of fantasy losses, do the rational thing and check the league standings for points scored. You may not be as far behind in points scored or max possible points scored as it may feel week to week, and those numbers can tell you a lot. Second, it means that if you need to be as active as ever on your waiver wire and trade offers. I would recommend trading some names for someone more under the radar. Tyler Lockett (WR 13 in PPR) and Amari Cooper (WR 11) are always underrated. If you can swap someone like that for Mike Evans (WR 22) or Tee Higgins (WR 26) you should consider doing that.
Two: Streaming the QB is the only way to go for the rest of the year.
The top 12 fantasy QBs in PPR for Week 6 included Matt Ryan (2), Trevor Lawrence (4), Marcus Mariota (5), Teddy Bridgewater (7), Justin Fields (8), Jimmy Garoppolo (9), and Bailey Zappe (10). If you don’t have one of the top 4 or 5 guys at QB in Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Pat Mahomes, and Joe Burrow, you should be streaming QB. Do NOT keep a QB in your lineup simply because you drafted him higher than Geno Smith (QB 7) or Daniel Jones (QB 13), who both probably went undrafted in the first place. You are hurting your team if you do not make a move. Other than the top 5 guys at the top of the list, there are only two other QBs that I will hold on to if I have them, and that’s Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray. However, week to week, consider benching them in favor of a better matchup. Between Murray and Herbert, they have only been a QB 1 in 7 of the 12 possible games (and 1 of those was Murray just managing to get in at QB 12 in Week 5). You can get at least 50/50 shot off of the waiver wire any given week in most leagues, so my recommendation is to trade Murray or Herbert for a WR/RB/TE who is consistent and let someone else deal with those decisions. Be willing to drop anyone else. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wison (SHEESH), and the like are just not going to get it done for you consistently this year. Don’t be afraid to play the gross names in good matchups.