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Opportunity Score – What Is It?

Over the years I’ve messed around with a ton of stats to try and find an edge in regards to players (WRs and TEs) that I think are going to perform better as the season goes on and are undervalued from the name or box score test. I developed what I call Opportunity Score (OS). Since posting about it I’ve been getting a lot of questions about what OS is, how it’s calculated and how I interpret the data to help me in Fantasy Football.

OS is essentially the combination of Target Share (TS), Red Zone Target Share (RTS), Average Target Distance (aDOT) and Yards Per Reception (YPR). I toyed around with including Yards After the Catch (YAC) to OS for a while because it’s always been a great indicator of a pass catcher’s ability but the results have generally been better without it. Full disclaimer I think YAC isn’t talked about enough as a positive performance indicator and I’m actually going to be posting weekly YAC totals and averages.

Anyway, back to OS. Typically I post the score as one complete bar graph but I think moving forward I am going to post it so you can see where the breakdown comes from; as someone who loves looking at data and seeing the components of it, it just makes more sense. Below is an example of what I typically post and what I will be posting moving forward.

This is what I have been posting. With not being calculated from zero and not laying out the details it’s almost a disservice on my part.
This will be what I’m posting moving forward. You can see the tremendous difference in being able to see the real breakdown. Have to love Equanimeous’ 100% RTS.

As with any data you have to see what passes the eye test on the charts and on the field. In my recent Twitter post I outlined some of the the players and put them into categories based on what I expect to see as the season moves forward; you can see that post below.

Since I will be posting this each week we will start to see who is legit and who starts to fade from their early season numbers. The ideal data spot seems to be the conclusion of Week 3. This is when we can start to see who we should begin to target in our trade offers. If a player sustains strong OS through three weeks we know that this player is becoming or has become part of their team’s offense. With the vast majority of offensive starters getting minimal playing time in the preseason it will take offenses a bit longer than normal to gel. As this happens we will be looking for high OS scores with average production results; because we know the production will come as the QB-WR duos continue to gel. These will be players that other league members most likely won’t know the reason for these lackluster results but because we track the data we know they are due to right the ship or breakout.

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