Posted by Matt Olson

Industry Mock Draft – 12 Team, Superflex, Full PPR

September 4, 2022

On Thursday our Max Dornan took part in a 12-Team , Superflex, PPR industry mock draft with several industry pros.  The format was pretty standard; 4pt for a TD pass while starting one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one SFlex, one TE, one K and one DST.

Participating in the mock were:

  • Scott Engel (@scotteTheKing)
  • Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield )
  • Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL)
  • J.M. Tohline (@JMToWin)
  • Dave Richard (@daverichard)
  • Justin Boone (@justinboone)
  • Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso)
  • Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
  • Jared Smola (@SmolaDS)
  • JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB)
  • Alex Baker (@AwesemoDFS)

All these guys are amazing follows if you don’t already.  We really appreciate the opportunity and are thankful for the invite.

Max had the first overall pick which made things pretty interesting.  Being a superflex draft he knew that he essentially had to go quarterback-quarterback with his first two picks.  To get Josh Allen is always a win but even more so in this format; then to grab Trevor Lawrence with the last pick in the second was incredible; a lot of us at 32BW are pretty high on Lawrence this year.

We want to take you through some of the remainder of Max’s picks and explain the logic behind why he took the player he did.  This will hopefully give you some strong player insight that may help you as we all wrap up draft week and get ready for the regular season.

Mock Draft Picks

Pick 01.01 (01) – Josh Allen

Pick 02.12 (24) – Trevor Lawrence

Pick 03.01 (25) – Najee Harris

Pick 04.12 (40) – James Conner

Pick 05.01 (41) – Jaylen Waddle

We chose Jaylen Waddle over Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, and Tee Higgins. Waddle has kind of been all over the board lately depending on which site you are using to draft. There’s no reason to believe Waddle can’t beat his 104 catches (rookie record), 1,015 yards, and 6 touchdowns from last year in this new and improved Dolphins offense. Sure, Tyreek Hill is in town now, but these two dynamic playmakers can coexist. The bigger question mark is the guy throwing him the ball, Tua Tagovailoa. If Tua is as improved as what everyone has been saying in Dolphins camp, then Waddle is in store for a big season. He’s missed a chunk of practice time the last few weeks, but he should be good to go by Week 1. He has game breaking speed and can house it from anywhere on the field. What’s not to like?

Pick 06.12 (60) – Amon-Ra St. Brown

Getting Amon-Ra St. Brown at pick 72 was an absolute steal in our opinion. The Sun God is primed for an even greater breakout in year two. Jared Goff loves ARSB and he’ll be Goff’s go-to when the Lions need a play and a security blanket when things start breaking down.

Goff recently compared ARSB to Cooper Kupp:
“Very similar. Both play in the slot. I think the first thing I noticed with both of them is the way they approach the game and the way they show up daily and how professional they are. So even before you get on the field, they both have a very similar mindset. But yeah, I think there are some comparisons there: late-round pick, guy in the slot, got a little chip on their shoulder. Both are extremely hard working, extremely internally motivated and both guys I’ve been very lucky to play with.”

From week 13-18 last season, ARSB received 10 or more targets in every game and caught most of those targets. Granted TJ Hockenson was out during the majority of that span. Still, ARSB has a play style that we love and should still see plenty of targets. The Lions will be better this year, but will probably still be playing catch up in most games. We didn’t even have to think about other players on the board with ARSB sitting there for the taking.

Pick 07.01 (61) – DK Metcalf

What’s not to love about DK Metcalf at this spot?  The narrative this year seems to be that because Geno Smith is going to be his QB.  Let’s look at talented receivers with less than stellar quarterback through the years – probably dug deeper than I should.

2002: Gus Frerotte – Chad Johnson 1,166 and 5
2006: JP Losman – Lee Evans 1,292 and 8
2008: Jason Campbell – Santana Moss 1,044 and 6
2011: Matt Moore – Brandon Marshall 1,214 and 6
2014: Josh McCown – Mike Evans 1,051 and 12

My point here is that it is 100% possible for Metcalf to come out on top here.  Geno Smith looked for a him a lot last year when starting: 31 targets, 25 receptions, 356 yards and 6 touchdowns over five games – a decent sample size too.  Metcalf’s touchdown production didn’t come by change, Smith seeked him out and got the ball in his hands to make plays, which Metcalf has excelled at since his early college days.  With Smith at QB Metcalf’s worst game last year in half PPR was 8.8 pts with his best game being 24.3 pts: Metcalf averaged 16.82 FPPG; not too shabby.

Pick 08.12 (80) – T.J. Hockenson

Pick 09.01 (81) – J.K. Dobbins

With this pick, we went all in on the upside of JK Dobbins. We had our choice of several running backs here besides Dobbins: Tony Pollard, Rashaad Penny, Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs, Devin Singletary, and Kareem Hunt. In our opinion none of those guys have the amount of upside (or talent) as Dobbins. The Ravens are a run first offense and as long as Dobbins is ready to roll at or near the beginning of the season, then this should be a smash as a 9th round pick. By all accounts, he has been looking quick and explosive in his return to practice. Additionally, Gus Edwards is guaranteed to miss the first 4 games of the season. The Ravens did just sign Kenyan Drake, but he’ll be a distant #2 back for the Ravens until Edwards returns. Dobbins is the clear lead runner in this backfield. There might be a “ramping up” period for him to start the season, but as our 3rd RB we can afford to be patient with him.

Pick 10.12 (100) – Nyheim Hines

Pick 11.01 (101) – Skyy Moore

Pick 12.12 (120) – Zach Ertz

Pick 13.01 (121) – Wan’Dale Robinson

A favorite pick by us and Jacob Gibbs judging by his reaction, “Love the Wan’Dale pick Max”. At this point of the draft Wan’Dale was basically free for Max and a great bench stash. Someone is going to produce in the passing game for the Giants. It’s not going to be Golladay at this point, Toney and Shepard can’t stay healthy which really only leaves Robinson and a path to every game targets. Robinson had a 39.3% target share his final year in college due to go along with a 73% catch rate. Good things happen when the ball is in his hands. The Giants desperately need a playmaker outside of Barkley and Robinson can be that guy. As drafters have caught on to his potential we’ve seen his ADP go from 177 overall to 152 – that’s a two and a half round rise in ten team leagues.

Pick 14.12 (140) – Jameson Williams

This pick comes with two benefits.  The first is that when Williams comes back he has the talent to make an immediate impact and slot in as a WR4.  The second is that with this pick we can stash him on IR immediately after the draft and add another player to our team; in this case we talked about that player being Jordan Palmer.  So what we essentially did was draft Williams and Palmer with the final pick in the draft.

About Williams himself, he is a 6’1” burner with the receiving skills to match his speed.  You can’t question his production as he was an absolute beast in college with a skillset that will translate well to the pros.  His biggest hindrance will be Goff as it is going to be very tough to support St. Brown, Hockenson, Williams and Swift for high level fantasy points.  Williams presents as the best option for the deep ball when he comes back, Chark will play this role but should get passed quickly by Williams upon his return.  Think DeSean Jackson 2018 Tampa Bay sort of plays – run straight and heave.  Great for a bye week flyer that are desperately needed the second half of the fantasy season.

Mock Draft Overall Results

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