With the QB class of 2024 ready to begin their careers next month, there is plenty of dynasty hype shared amongst the six first rounders at the position. All the quarterbacks have dynasty appeal in different ways, but what about for redraft purposes? This article will take a look at former first round quarterback production in their rookie year and will help determine if the quarterbacks of the 2024 class are worth taking a shot on for your redraft teams.
At this moment, two of the six rookie first round quarterbacks have just about locked up a starting spot in week 1:
Two of the six rookie first round quarterbacks will have a shot to start week 1 but must win camp battles:
Finally, there are 2 first round quarterbacks who will not have a shot to start week 1 for injury and draft intention purposes:
- Michael Penix
- J.J. McCarthy
Since 2010, there have been 18 first round quarterbacks to start week 1 for their team. Listed below is each quarterback and how they finished in their rookie season.
2023 Bryce Young – QB23 (16 Games)
2023 C.J. Stroud – QB11 (15 Games)
2023 Anthony Richardson – QB40 (4 Games)
2021 Trevor Lawrence – QB23 (17 Games)
2021 Zach Wilson – QB30 (13 Games)
2020 Joe Burrow – QB25 (10 Games)
2019 Kyler Murray – QB6 (16 Games)
2018 Sam Darnold – QB25 (13 Games)
2016 Carson Wentz – QB24 (16 Games)
2015 Jameis Winston – QB13 (16 Games)
2015 Marcus Mariota – QB22 (12 Games)
2013 EJ Manuel – QB29 (10 Games)
2012 Andrew Luck – QB10 (16 Games)
2012 Robert Griffin – QB37 (9 Games)
2012 Ryan Tannehill – QB24 (16 Games)
2012 Brandon Weeden – QB26 (15 Games)
2011 Cam Newton – QB3 (16 Games)
2010 Sam Bradford – QB20 (16 Games)
Notes for first round rookie quarterbacks who have started week 1 for their team since 2010:
4/18 QBs returned QB1 value, with the highest being Cam Newton at QB3. Anthony Richardson was also on a QB1 pace but only played 4 games.
10/18 QBs delivered top 24 seasons on a per game basis.
6/8 first overall picks delivered top 24 value per game
75% of the QB1 finishes by rookie QBs have come from first overall picks
25% of the QB1 finishes by rookie QBs have come from second overall picks
No QBs drafted outside the first two picks have returned a QB1 season
Now let’s take a look at the current ADP for the rookie QBs who could start week 1:
Jayden Daniels: QB12
Caleb Williams: QB15
Bo Nix: QB30
Drake Maye: QB32
The prices for the current class might seem low, but let’s take a deeper dive.
Jayden Daniels is an interesting dilemma at his price. The reward for his output could far exceed his ADP. He has the rushing upside similar to 2011 Cam Newton who was able to finish as the QB3. There have also been a few highly talented rushing QBs who were not able to return draft capital due to injuries (Robert Griffin III, Anthony Richardson). I like taking a shot on Daniels at ADP but also following him up with a steady backup option later in the draft. Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford or even Baker Mayfield are good veterans to put behind Daniels on your QB depth chart.
Caleb Williams is a slam dunk at his current cost to me. On the surface, the success rate for rookie years is low (4/18 QB1 seasons) since 2010. But not many have been regarded as better prospects than Williams. Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow and one could argue Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and Trevor Lawrence are the only ones that are better or close. Williams has also found himself in a dream landing spot on a Bears team with great pass catchers, steady running backs, an improving offensive line and a solid defense. If he can stay away from injury, I love him at his price. He becomes a great option to those who missed a QB run and are looking for high upside late.
Bo Nix is probably an afterthought in 1QB leagues, but can be interesting in 2QB redraft leagues. Camp reports are improving on him as the season gets closer and he has a good chance to win the starting job. He is a solid QB3 option in 2QB leagues.
Drake Maye is a great value at his current price, and I would even consider taking him in the last round of 1QB leagues if you also own a prominent QB1. Maye should be starting very quickly into his career and has the running and downfield throwing ability to rack up points quickly in fantasy. He will also most likely get sacked a lot with a subpar line and will have a lot of growing pains on a team that will improve with time, but his explosive style of play could potentially help fantasy managers in a pinch.
